Anthropic is about to lap OpenAI in corporate spending, and OpenAI's pitch deck now leads with "we have more GPUs."
The Summary
- Anthropic now captures 30.6% of AI business spending among Ramp customers, up 6.3% from March, while OpenAI holds 35.2%. At current pace, Anthropic overtakes OpenAI in two months.
- OpenAI's counter-pitch to investors: we got to the compute pile first, so we'll win anyway.
- Anthropic already leads in finance, insurance, and professional services. The enterprise is voting with corporate cards, and the vote is getting tight.
The Signal
The gap is 4.6 percentage points. Two months ago it was wider. Ramp data shows Anthropic gaining 6.3 points in March alone, while half of Ramp's customer base now pays for AI products at all. This is not a survey of intent or a Gartner quadrant. This is actual corporate card spending from a finance platform that serves thousands of businesses.
Anthropic already owns three sectors outright: information, finance and insurance, and personal services. It leads among VC-backed companies. The early adopters, the ones who moved first and matter most for momentum, have picked Claude.
"Anthropic is on track to surpass OpenAI within the next two months. It already leads among early adopters, including VC-backed companies, and in key sectors like software, finance, and professional services."
OpenAI's response was to brief investors this week on its superior compute position. The pitch: we bought the chips earlier, we have more server racks, we can train bigger models faster. It is the kind of argument you make when you are no longer winning on product. Compute is table stakes. Compute does not explain why finance teams are switching.
The timing matters because both companies are eyeing public markets. Anthropic is "mulling a potential public offering" while OpenAI deals with what Fortune bluntly calls being "a drama company", referring to ongoing executive reshuffles, scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman's honesty, and reported tensions with CFO Sarah Friar. Drama does not sell in roadshows.
IPO windows open and close based on momentum. Right now, the startup landscape is split between legacy unicorns trying to prove AI relevance and new AI leaders that might be too early for public investors. Anthropic's spending growth puts it in the second category with proof of concept. OpenAI has the brand, but brands fade fast when the enterprise switches vendors.
Key advantages Anthropic has built:
- Faster growth rate in the metric that matters most: revenue via customer spend
- Sector leadership in high-margin industries (finance, insurance, professional services)
- Momentum with early adopters and VC-backed firms that influence broader enterprise decisions
- Less internal chaos heading into potential IPO prep
The Ramp data is a narrow lens, but it is a true lens. These are not downloads or sign-ups. These are approved expenses, budget allocations, and recurring charges. When a CFO adds Anthropic to the approved vendor list and removes OpenAI, that is signal. When that happens across thousands of companies in the same month, that is a trend.
The Implication
If you are building on OpenAI APIs, start testing Claude. If you are advising companies on AI procurement, the momentum has shifted and it is worth understanding why finance and insurance firms moved first. These sectors do not chase hype. They chase reliability, auditability, and vendors that do not reorganize their C-suite every quarter.
For OpenAI, the compute argument works until it doesn't. Bigger models do not matter if enterprises trust the other guy's outputs more. Watch the April and May Ramp data. If Anthropic crosses over, the narrative heading into any IPO window tilts hard.
Sources
Business Insider Tech | Bloomberg Tech | Fortune Tech | AI Supremacy