> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://wire.fourthweb.ai/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Bitcoin Hits $64K While S&P Tanks on Fed Bets - URL: https://wire.fourthweb.ai/bitcoin-hits-64k-while-s-p-tanks-on-fed-bets/ - Published: 2026-08-18T04:05:29.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-18T04:32:15.000Z - Description: Wall Street's betting the Fed's done hiking while crypto's betting it never mattered in the first place. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% Monday while Bitcoin surged past $64,000, a rare divergence that signals traders pricing in completely different Fed outcomes across asset classes. - Author: Travis Wright - Tags: Real World Assets, Stablecoins, Tokenized Assets, Bitcoin **Wall Street's betting the Fed's done hiking while crypto's betting it never mattered in the first place.** ### The Summary - [The S&P 500 fell 0.52% Monday while Bitcoin surged past $64,000](https://beincrypto.com/sp500-bitcoin-diverge-fomc-minutes-preview/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), a rare divergence that signals traders pricing in completely different Fed outcomes across asset classes. - [Goldman Sachs now calls a September rate hike "very unlikely"](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/17/september-fed-interest-rate-increase-is-very-unlikely-goldman-sachs-says?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) despite [BofA's Aditya Bhave still defending a three-hike forecast](https://beincrypto.com/bofa-three-fed-hikes-july-cpi/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) after July's CPI report. - [Market pricing shows declining probability of Fed rate hikes before mid-2027](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-rate-hike-probability-declining-2027/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), with [the dollar falling to a three-month low](https://cryptobriefing.com/dollar-falls-three-month-low-fed-rate-hike/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) as expectations collapse. - The Fed's July meeting minutes drop Wednesday, and [Fed officials remain split internally on the next move](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-minutes-reveal-division-on-rate-hike-decision/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) as inflation data sends mixed signals. ### The Signal Two weeks ago, Wall Street was pricing in multiple rate hikes through 2027\. Today, [Goldman Sachs says September is off the table](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/17/september-fed-interest-rate-increase-is-very-unlikely-goldman-sachs-says?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) and markets are betting the Fed won't move until late 2027\. What changed? Not the data. The narrative. [July's inflation numbers showed easing](https://cryptobriefing.com/us-inflation-eases-in-july-fed-rate-hike-unlikely-in-september/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), but inflation is still above the 2% target. [Retail sales came in weak](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-rate-hike-expectations-drop-after-weak-retail-sales-sentiment-data/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), suggesting the economy is slowing. [Fed Chair Warsh ditched forward guidance](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-chair-warsh-emphasizes-inflation-control-over-rate-guidance/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), saying the Fed will focus on inflation control rather than telegraphing rate paths. Yet somehow, markets heard "we're done." > "Soft economic data has Goldman Sachs doubting a September rate increase, offering good news for bitcoin bulls." The currency markets already made their bets. [The dollar hit a three-month low](https://cryptobriefing.com/dollar-falls-three-month-low-fed-rate-hike/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai). [The British pound is near a three-month high](https://cryptobriefing.com/british-pound-nears-three-month-high-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-fade/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai). [Asian currencies strengthened](https://cryptobriefing.com/asian-currencies-strengthen-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-diminish/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) as traders priced in a Fed that's finished tightening. [Bitcoin](https://wire.fourthweb.ai/tag/bitcoin/) surged past $64,000 while stocks sold off, a divergence that tells you risk appetite didn't disappear. It migrated. Traditional markets are pricing in economic slowdown. Crypto is pricing in liquidity. The difference matters because if the Fed stays on hold, you get the worst of both: stagnant growth with inflation still elevated, and crypto acting like the only game with upside. That's not a bull market. That's a rotational panic. Here's where it gets messy. [BofA's Aditya Bhave still calls for three more hikes](https://beincrypto.com/bofa-three-fed-hikes-july-cpi/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), saying tightening is incomplete. [Fed official Musalem urged stronger measures to curb inflation](https://cryptobriefing.com/feds-musalem-urges-stronger-measures-to-curb-inflation-above-2-target/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) while simultaneously saying [inflation expectations remain stable and aligned with the 2% target](https://cryptobriefing.com/feds-musalem-inflation-expectations-stable-align-with-2-target/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai). [Wells Fargo's chief economist Tom Porcelli says the Fed can't win the inflation fight with rate hikes alone](https://beincrypto.com/wells-fargo-economist-fed-rate-hike/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) and expects the Fed to hold through 2026\. Pick your narrative. Key disagreements inside the Fed: - Some officials see [labor markets as stable and not driving inflation](https://cryptobriefing.com/feds-daly-labor-market-not-driving-inflation-pressures/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) - Others argue [multiple hikes may still be needed](https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-official-suggests-multiple-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-amid-inflation-concerns/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) - [Tariff-driven inflation pressures show signs of easing](https://cryptobriefing.com/feds-daly-tariff-driven-inflation-pressures-showing-signs-of-easing/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), but core inflation remains sticky [Treasury Secretary Bessent stepped in](https://cryptobriefing.com/bessent-core-inflation-fed-rate-cuts-crypto/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai), saying core inflation is cooling and the Fed should take note. That's political pressure dressed up as economic analysis. The Fed doesn't typically respond well to Treasury secretaries telling them what "should" happen, but the comment reveals how much the White House wants rate cuts before the next election cycle. > "A prolonged stable rate environment may boost risk-on assets like crypto, but inflation data remains a critical factor for future shifts." Wednesday's Fed minutes will either confirm the market's dovish pivot or reveal the split is deeper than traders think. If the minutes show consensus building for one more hike, Bitcoin's $64,000 rally reverses fast. If they show the Fed genuinely pausing, crypto might hold gains but stocks face a reality check: no rate cuts means no earnings recovery for companies already squeezed by higher costs. ### The Implication Watch Wednesday's minutes for language around "data-dependent" versus "patient." If the Fed uses "patient," markets are right and crypto's rally has room. If they emphasize "data-dependent" with inflation concerns, BofA's three-hike call isn't dead yet, and Bitcoin's about to learn that macro still matters. For crypto holders, this moment is a test. If Bitcoin holds $64,000 while stocks stay weak, it confirms crypto is decoupling as a liquidity indicator, not a risk asset. If both fall together when the minutes drop, we're still in a synchronized market where the Fed controls all risk appetite. For anyone building in Web3 or deploying [stablecoins](https://wire.fourthweb.ai/tag/stablecoins/), a Fed on hold means dollar weakness continues, which makes [tokenized assets](https://wire.fourthweb.ai/tag/tokenized-assets/) and cross-border crypto rails more attractive. But if inflation stays hot and the Fed surprises with more hikes, that tailwind turns into a headwind fast. Position accordingly. ### Sources [BeInCrypto](https://beincrypto.com/sp500-bitcoin-diverge-fomc-minutes-preview/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) | [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/dollar-falls-three-month-low-fed-rate-hike/?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai) | [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/17/september-fed-interest-rate-increase-is-very-unlikely-goldman-sachs-says?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai)