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# IVP's Perplexity Backer: AI Winners Already Decided, Losers Don't Know It Yet
- URL: https://wire.fourthweb.ai/ivps-perplexity-backer-ai-winners-already-decided-losers-dont-know-it-yet/
- Published: 2026-08-13T20:38:54.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-13T20:38:57.000Z
- Description: The VC who backed Perplexity early says the winners are already pulling away — and the rest of the AI pack is about to learn what "compounding advantage" really means.
- Author: Travis Wright
- Tags: AI Agent Economy, OpenAI, Funding Rounds

**The VC who backed Perplexity early says the winners are already pulling away — and the rest of the AI pack is about to learn what "compounding advantage" really means.**

### The Summary

- [Cack Wilhelm, general partner at IVP, says we're in a "golden age of technology" but warns that AI's capital markets could face adjustment without hurting long-term potential](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-08-13/from-perplexity-to-the-next-ai-winners-video?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai)
- AI productivity gains won't show up in corporate earnings immediately — the lag between deployment and measurable ROI is real
- Venture returns are concentrating around fewer breakout winners, creating a power law steeper than previous tech cycles

### The Signal

[Wilhelm's "golden age" framing matters because it comes from someone who got Perplexity right early](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-08-13/from-perplexity-to-the-next-ai-winners-video?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai). IVP doesn't spray capital at every AI pitch deck. When a VC at that firm says the winners are separating from the pack, they're describing a pattern they're actively exploiting, not observing from the sidelines.

The productivity paradox she highlights is the gap every CFO is living right now. Companies are burning cash on AI infrastructure and talent, but the P&L impact is months or quarters away. This creates the setup for a capital markets correction, not because the technology doesn't work, but because public market investors price quarterly earnings and private market investors price decade-long outcomes.

> "AI productivity may take time to show up in corporate results."

Wilhelm's concept of "compounding advantage" explains why IVP bet on Perplexity before most people understood what differentiated AI search could become. The advantage isn't just first-mover speed. It's the feedback loop where early users generate data that improves the model, which attracts more users, which generates more data. By the time competitors notice, the gap is already structural.

Here's what concentrating venture returns actually means:

- The top 1-2 AI companies in each category will capture 80%+ of the value
- Second-place players will struggle to justify their valuations
- Capital will flood winners faster than in previous cycles, widening moats before competitors can respond

This isn't the 2010s when you could build a decent SaaS tool and get acquired for $200M. The new power law is brutal. If you're not building something with compounding advantage, you're building something that gets commoditized the moment [OpenAI](https://wire.fourthweb.ai/tag/openai/) adds your feature to ChatGPT.

### The Implication

If you're deploying AI in your company, the productivity lag is real but not an excuse to slow down. Your competitors are making the same bets. The question is whether you're building compounding advantage or just buying SaaS subscriptions with better marketing. The winners are already pulling away, and they're not slowing down to let you catch up.

For founders, Wilhelm's point about concentrated returns is a warning. Building a "pretty good" AI company won't generate venture returns anymore. You need to be building toward category dominance from day one, or you need to rethink your funding strategy entirely.

### Sources

[Bloomberg Tech](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-08-13/from-perplexity-to-the-next-ai-winners-video?ref=wire.fourthweb.ai)