Prediction markets are eating every information vertical they touch, but the infrastructure supplying them isn't built for what comes next.
The Summary
- Kaiko CEO Ambre Soubiran discusses prediction markets' rapid expansion and the data infrastructure requirements driving the sector
- Prediction markets are moving beyond politics into every verifiable event, creating new demands for real-time, trusted data feeds
- The bottleneck isn't liquidity or users — it's reliable event resolution infrastructure that can handle non-financial outcomes
The Signal
Prediction markets have found product-market fit, but the plumbing underneath is still Web2. Kaiko, known for institutional-grade crypto market data, sees the next frontier: events-driven contract infrastructure that can settle bets on anything verifiable, not just price feeds.
The technical challenge is harder than it looks. Traditional oracle networks were built to answer "What's the price of ETH?" Now they need to answer "Did this product launch happen?" or "What was Q3 revenue for this company?" The data sources are messier, the verification requirements higher, and the stakes different.
"Prediction markets are only as good as the data that settles them."
Soubiran's timing matters. Polymarket crossed $3 billion in volume last year. Kalshi won regulatory approval for event contracts. Every crypto-native platform is adding prediction functionality. But growth is outpacing infrastructure maturity:
- Most platforms still rely on manual resolution or single-source oracles
- Event verification for non-price data has no industry standard
- Settlement disputes spike when real money rides on subjective outcomes
The gap creates opportunity for whoever solves trusted, automated event resolution at scale. That's not a data problem — it's a verification problem. You need sources that can't be gamed, resolution logic that's transparent, and speed that matches user expectations.
The Implication
Watch for convergence between prediction market platforms and data infrastructure providers. The winners won't just aggregate bets — they'll own the rails that make settlement trustless and instant. If Kaiko or competitors crack events-driven infrastructure, prediction markets stop being a crypto curiosity and become the default interface for information discovery. That changes how we price everything from election outcomes to product launches to climate events.