Corporate America has frozen its checkbook because CEOs can't value what AI might destroy tomorrow.
The Summary
- Tech M&A activity has stalled in 2026 as corporate leaders cite AI uncertainty as the primary blocker, according to bankers and lawyers at the Tulane Corporate Law Institute
- CEOs can't determine if potential acquisitions will be obsolete before the deal closes, or if their own businesses will survive intact
- The traditional M&A playbook assumes stable market conditions. AI broke that assumption.
The Signal
The data center deals mentioned in the headline are the exception proving a larger rule: most executives have no idea how to price uncertainty when the uncertainty is existential. Scott Barshay, who chairs Paul, Weiss and advises Fortune 500 companies on billions in deals, says his clients are sitting on their hands. Not because capital is expensive. Not because regulators are hostile. Because they genuinely cannot model what their target companies will be worth in 18 months.
This is different from normal market hesitation. In 2008, you knew banks were banks and car companies made cars. The question was whether they'd survive the quarter. In 2026, the question is whether customer service departments, legal research firms, and software development shops will exist as recognizable businesses by 2027. That's not a valuation problem. That's an ontological crisis.
The data center deals still closing are instructive. Physical infrastructure for AI compute is one of the few assets where value is directionally certain. You can model demand for GPU clusters and power capacity. You cannot model demand for a SaaS company whose entire product might be replaced by a $20/month AI subscription. So money flows to the picks and shovels while the actual miners wait to see if there's gold in the hills or if we're all digging in the wrong place.
What's not being said at conferences like Tulane: this isn't just about buyer hesitation. Sellers can't price their own companies either. If you're a founder with a profitable B2B software business, do you take the exit now before AI eats your moat, or do you bet that AI will expand your market faster than it commoditizes your product? Most are choosing paralysis over either bet.
The Implication
Watch where the smart money still moves. Infrastructure plays and AI tooling companies are getting funded and acquired because they're picks and shovels. Everything else is frozen until someone figures out how to build a financial model that accounts for "might not be a business category in 2028."
If you're building or running a company right now, this is your window. Competitors aren't acquiring. Corporate development teams are paralyzed. Strategic buyers are sidelined. The companies that figure out how to operate in this uncertainty, rather than wait for it to clear, will own the next three years.
Source: The Information